The New Frontier

My two sons often joke with me, when I talk about a creative idea they laugh and say "that's so 20th century". Sometimes they see make things by hand and wonder -what's with that? More than once they have asked why am I "electronically Amish" ?

We really are on the edge of a new frontier. Or maybe it is better said that we are looking over a cliff that separates the past from the future.  There is nothing new about computers and all the wonderful things that they can do -just that now (particularly in this recession) we are seeing some of the fruits of the digital revolution.

One reporter at the local paper posted a list the ten worse jobs in America. Lumberjack was either 8 or 9 on the list because it was so dangerous. Statistically a lumberjack had a much higher chance of being hurt or killed than soldier in a combat zone. The number one worse job was newspaper reporter and it was ironic that he posted it on Facebook.

Once one third of a newspaper's revenues were from classified ads. Services like E-Bay and Craigslist have wiped out that income stream.  With less money coming in reporters have been laid off or been asked to work harder for less money.  As the quality of journalism has slipped and the twit & blogosphere has become the second by second unfiltered news source. The readership of newspapers is into a downward spiral.

The great die off of newspapers has already begun but in another five years the collapse is predicted to be catastrophic. National newspapers like the NY Times and USA Today will actually pick up readership but every other paper down the food chain will be at risk of closing or becoming smaller niche publication (like focusing solely on sports or lifestyles).  There will be no need or better said there will be no money for serious news reporting except maybe for a couple flagship papers. Maybe we won't always have the Daily Planet.

  

The digital revolution can be seen on Main Street too. Book stores and record shops have disappeared, even local radio stations can no longer compete with online entertainment. One band shared with me how last summer they did over a two dozen radio interviews promoting their music .  During that same time their MySpace account gave them double the exposure, lead to several gigs and was a lot less time and trouble than being on the air.

The digital revolution is only an acceleration of what's been happening over the last two centuries. New ways of manufacturing and disrupting things have provided golden opportunities to grow and expand for some and bankruptcy for everyone else.  It was one of the subthemes in Charles Dickens A Christmas Carol, though these days the market cycles have reduced from years to what seems like almost a few nanoseconds.

Change is not always obvious. Back in the 1950's Hollywood felt threaten by the emergence of TV.  Movie producers started to make big spectacular films the TV couldn't afford to make and later started to make exploitation films with adult content that TV station couldn't broadcast.  In the end TV didn't kill off Hollywood but it did kill off vaudeville.

Up until the 1950's vaudeville was alive and well. On stage performers would do a variety show in one town, pack up and do the same show 50 miles down the road. You could develop an act and for entire year go from theater to theater across the country. It wasn't the easiest way to make a living but thousands of actors, singers, comedians, musicians and other entertainers got by on the vaudeville circuit.

Finally when almost everyone owned a TV, any joke, song or novelty act could get immediate national exposure -but once it was broadcasted it had a very limit shelf life. It made some stars into superstars but it left a lot talent begging for a venue to perform in.     

During Ronald Reagan's first term he said he wanted to make the American labor market like Hollywood.  I think most people misinterpreted what he meant, Hollywood was seen as a glamorous industrial town where talented and competitive people rise to the top.

Once upon a time Ronald Reagan was president of the Screen Actors Guild. It was a labor union for actors. It was unique a labor union where 1% was paid generous amounts of money for their work, 9% were B film and charter actors that could make a respectable living  -and the remaining 90% where unemployed except for the occasional bit part or extra role.

The world wide web and the new global market has made the world into Hollywood.  Computers have made companies more efficient, all kinds of companies can make more money using less people. In the past employees were able to capture some of that gain in productivity as higher wages. But because there have been so many workers displaced and companies have access to labor markets all around the planet, any disgruntled worker can be replaced as easily as downloading a book on a Kindle.

This is one reason why paychecks have stagnated over the last ten years and the unemployment rate has stayed so high during this current recession.  An economy is the circulation of money and right now the volume that once went to the middle class continues to be reduced. Think of this way if workers paychecks continue to stay flat and eventually lose ground to inflation, then they have less disposable income. People cut back on their spending, they sign up for Netflix instead of going to the movies.  Where I live two local movie theaters have closed down, 3 of the remaining 5 say they are on shaky ground.  Twenty more people here are unemployed and Netflix stock has gone up.

As average people feel more insecure about their financial future. the local business owners on Main Street are even more rattled. It is harder and harder for them to find goods and services to sell that can't be found online for less.

As frightening as the new economies of scale are, what's worse is poisonous idea that everything should be free.  I like being creative but I also have bills to pay. Some of my musician friends have dropped out of the business because so many more promoters and venue owners expect them to perform for the exposure.  

The next wave of digital revolution is coming as 3D printers could compete with and replace the craftsman.  Anything that can be photographed and scanned could be reproduced in plastic in a 3D printer.

This is an older wood carving I did. I'm told it could very easily be scanned and reproduced  by the hundreds, the thousands and even larger numbers.  The final product could be modified to mimic different grain patterns, make it look older or that it was carved out of tropical hardwoods instead of molded out of plastic. The production costs are cheap -and unless I copyright the image and pay a lawyer to protect it, it could be stolen and used without my permission or any hope of compensation.

The future is just over that cliff.  No one said life is easy but at best it looks like a very hard landing on the other side.